You’ve probably landed here because patch 7.38c has scrambled your betting strategy (and maybe your brain).
The meta’s shifted a bit, and Heroes that barely got picked before are suddenly first-phase material. Others are gone, even though nothing huge changed. Usually, that’s how it goes. One small buff or one cooldown tweak, and the entire flow of the game tilts.
If you’re trying to bet smart, this is where you need to start paying attention. The draft gives you more information than the scoreboard ever will. Some heroes slow things down. Some ramp the game up. And right now, a few are doing a lot more than people realize.
This guide covers five heroes that are shaping how teams draft in 7.38c, and why they should be shaping how you bet.
Contents
Why patches influence hero selection
Every few months, Valve releases a new patch for Dota 2. These updates change hero stats, spell mechanics, items, and map balance. When that happens, some heroes get stronger, others get worse, and teams adjust their drafts to match.
If a patch makes a hero more durable, cheaper to play, or easier to execute, that hero starts getting picked. If it adds risk or slows down their timings, they’re dropped. This is what people mean when they talk about the “meta” — the heroes that are currently worth picking because they fit the pace and priorities of the patch.
For betting on Dota 2 (tips here), this matters because hero viability changes fast. A hero that was winning games two weeks ago might be completely ignored today. If you’re not following the patch, you’re reading the draft with outdated information.
Why does the draft matter for betting?
In Dota 2, the draft is the pre-game phase where teams take turns selecting heroes, revealing their game plan and shaping the match’s tempo, strengths, and strategic outlook before a single creep spawns.
The draft is where you get your first real edge. Before the lanes start, before a kill is scored, you already have information that can affect the outcome. Or, at the very least, how the game is going to unfold. If one team’s drafted for tempo and the other needs space to come online, you know what to expect from the early map. If a lineup has no scaling or no way to win a 5v5, it’s not hard to see where the game slips away.
That matters for bets on kills, towers, map time, and especially live odds. Books tend to react to the scoreline. Drafts give you a chance to act before it gets there. If you can read when a team has the better setup — or when they’ve completely botched it — you’ve got a chance to get in ahead of the market.
What to look for when assessing the draft
Once you understand the patch, the next step is reading the draft itself. Whether you’re betting pre-match or live, a few key signals can help you figure out which team has the better setup — or at least which one is more likely to execute cleanly.
Pick priority
First-phase picks say a lot about how a team wants to play. Some heroes are strong because of the patch. Others are picked early because they’re flexible — they can go in multiple roles, hide the draft’s direction, and buy time for a stronger last pick. When a team burns an early pick on something narrow or easily countered, that’s a red flag.
Win rates in the current patch
Don’t get caught looking at lifetime stats. You want to know how a hero is performing right now, ideally in the last 2–4 weeks across high MMR and pro matches. If a hero is being picked a lot but has a low win rate, it usually means they’re being forced into drafts where they don’t fit, or players haven’t adapted to the changes yet.
Lane matchups
You don’t need to know every 1v1, but you should understand lane strength. If a team has three losing lanes, they’re going to bleed map control, fall behind on XP, and have fewer ways to contest objectives early. Comeback potential exists — but not without coordination, and not often enough to rely on.
Spell and damage overlap
Some drafts spread damage across multiple heroes and damage types. Others funnel everything into one or two cores. That’s fine if they’re ahead — but if that one hero falls behind or gets countered, the whole lineup can collapse. Watch for whether a team actually has enough consistent output to win a fight without needing everything to land perfectly.
Cooldown dependence
If a draft relies on big ultimates to function, every failed fight puts them further behind. Teams that pick around long cooldowns need to play slower, and they often give up map control between fights. That affects objective trades, Roshan control, and bettable markets like tower totals or game time. The more cooldown-reliant a draft is, the less margin for error it has.
Scaling and fallback
Some drafts run out of options if they don’t close the game on time. If a team peaks at 25 minutes and can’t take Roshan or win a high ground push, they’re in trouble. Look for whether a draft has any way to win late, or whether it’s built entirely around hitting one timing window and hoping that’s enough.
The 5 best Dota 2 Heroes to shape your bets
1. Rubick
- Win rate (current patch): ~54% in high-MMR pubs on patch 7.38c
- When it’s likely to be picked: Against drafts with big ultimates or key lockdown abilities — usually second or third phase as a soft counter-pick
- Works best with: Frontline initiators like Axe, Centaur, or Wraith King that give him space to position and react
- Betting impact: Teams with Rubick often win longer teamfights, especially when enemy lineups rely on cooldowns.
Rubick’s always been a strong utility pick, but in the current patch, he’s one of the most reliable supports you can draft. His laning is solid, his spell steal gives massive swing potential in teamfights, and thanks to recent buffs to his mana efficiency, he no longer needs items to stay active. That makes him far easier to pick early without worrying about being dead weight in the midgame.
From a betting perspective, Rubick is a good sign that a team wants to play reactively and win longer fights. He doesn’t offer strong initiation, but when he’s played behind a durable frontliner, he becomes a problem — especially if the enemy draft has big spells to steal. You’ll often see him paired with frontline cores like Axe or Wraith King, which gives him the space he needs to do real damage.
If you see Rubick picked into lineups with Black Hole, Ravage, or Arena, take note. Teams with Rubick and decent follow-up often win extended fights, which you can see in kill spreads, tower control, and drawn-out map pressure.
2. Wraith King
- Win rate (current patch): ~57.7% in high-MMR pubs on patch 7.38c
- When it’s likely to be picked: Early in the draft when teams want a durable, low-commitment carry that doesn’t need heavy protection
- Works best with: Supports that bring sustain or control (Witch Doctor, Treant, Shadow Shaman), and offlaners who create space and take pressure off the safe lane
- Betting impact: Wraith King picks usually lead to slower early games and stronger midgame teamfights. He’s hard to burst, which affects kill markets, tower timings, and how long teams can hold map control without collapsing.
Wraith King is the kind of hero that gives a team breathing room. He doesn’t need stacks, doesn’t rely on mobility, and doesn’t collapse if the lane is just average. He brings guaranteed frontline and late-game presence without demanding a draft that revolves around him. That’s why he’s showing up more in early phases, because he gives away very little and solves multiple problems at once.
His real value is in how hard he is to punish. If you commit to killing him and don’t take a clean fight after the reincarnation, he just resets and buys space for his team to counter-initiate. In the current patch, this can change how the enemy plays, by force hesitation, especially in lineups that rely on cooldowns or need to burst targets fast.
A Wraith King draft usually means the team wants to play stable lanes and scale into early fight timings without needing everything to go perfectly. It’s rarely a 20-minute win, but it’s the kind of setup that holds a gold lead well and plays around objectives cleanly. If you’re looking at markets like total kills, map time, or second Roshan, he’s a strong indicator that the game won’t collapse early.
3. Axe
- Win rate (current patch): ~53.2% in high-MMR pubs on patch 7.38c
- When it’s likely to be picked: Early or mid draft when teams want tempo control and lane pressure from the offlane
- Works best with: Supports that can secure the lane (like Witch Doctor or Lich) and mids that can rotate early and sync with his Blink timing
- Betting impact: Axe drafts often lead to fast-paced early games and kill-heavy midgames. He creates pressure, forces reactions, and enables snowball lineups — which shows up in first-blood markets, kill totals, and early tower trades.
Axe does one thing extremely well — he forces movement. In the current patch, his early-game buffs mean he can dominate lanes again, especially against melee carries or greedy supports. Once he hits Blink, he becomes the engine that drives the game forward. If his team has follow-up lockdown or burst, fights can snowball fast.
He’s most effective in lineups that don’t want to sit back. Axe gives teams a clean way to start fights, force cooldowns, and take map control. He’s not great in drafts that lack damage, but if there’s a mid or safe lane core that can follow up, he turns small leads into full objective control.
For bettors, Axe is a tempo flag. You’ll see him in drafts that want to get things done early. If he’s paired with early magic damage or strong skirmish supports, expect high kill counts, early Roshan attempts, and aggressive map movement around minute 10–20. That should shape how you look at game duration and kill-related markets.
4. Tiny
- Win rate (current patch): ~50–52% in high-MMR pubs, depending on role
- When it’s likely to be picked: As a flex pick in second or third phase — usually mid, but occasionally support or offlane when the draft needs burst and early tower damage
- Works best with: High-damage follow-up cores (like Lina, Drow, or TA) and supports who can rotate early or secure runes
- Betting impact: Tiny drafts often lead to kill-focused early games. He spikes fast, forces movement, and opens up the map. This shows up in kill spreads, first tower markets, and map tempo swings before 20 minutes.
Tiny doesn’t scale the same way most mids do, but that’s not why he’s one of the best Dota 2 Heroes and why teams pick him. They pick him because he spikes early, punishes weak lanes, and can knock down towers without needing much farm. His laning is stable, his combo hits hard, and his tree toss gives real poke pressure in early skirmishes. He creates problems fast, and in this patch, that’s what a lot of teams are looking for.
He’s also one of the more flexible picks in the pool. You’ll sometimes see him played as a support or even offlane, depending on the region or player. That flexibility makes him a safe second-phase pick if you don’t want to show your core yet.
From a betting perspective, Tiny signals a draft that wants to move early and doesn’t mind trading kills for map space. You’ll often see early rotations to side lanes, fast Blink timings, and fights around runes or Tier 1 towers. If he’s backed by another early-game core, expect a bloodier map and shorter match, especially in best-of-one formats or lower-bracket games where teams want to force tempo.
5. Medusa
- Win rate (current patch): ~53.3% in high-MMR pubs on patch 7.38c
- When it’s likely to be picked: Last phase, when the team already has space-makers and the enemy lacks mana burn or backline pressure
- Works best with: Disruptive supports (like Treant, Shadow Demon, or Undying) and offlaners that can stall fights or control space (like Mars or Tidehunter)
- Betting impact: Medusa drafts sometimes lead to long games with slower early pacing. Her presence skews markets like total kills, game duration, and second Roshan timing — especially in drafts with weak early tempo.
Medusa is a high-commitment pick. Teams don’t draft her unless they’re confident she can survive the early game and take over later. That means you’ll almost always see her picked last. Once it’s clear she won’t be heavily pressured or mana-burned into uselessness.
Her strengths are farming and how she shapes the map. She pulls attention, forces defensive warding, and slows down the game until she’s ready to take over. If her team can hold space and delay fights, she’ll win most engagements after 30 minutes. And because of Stone Gaze, even losing fights can turn into resets, especially if the enemy commits too hard.
For bettors, Medusa is a red flag for quick wins. She’s rarely picked in drafts that want to snowball, and if she doesn’t get shut down early, games usually drag. If you see her in a stable lineup with control and sustain, lean toward longer match duration and late objectives like second Roshan or mega creeps. She’s also a reason to doubt kill-heavy games, unless she’s getting hunted constantly.
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