Who is this for?
This module is for bettors who are tired of chasing gut feelings. This guide shows you how to follow the smart money – literally. Using blockchain data, you can see what the whales are betting, when they move, and how it affects odds in real time. We’ll walk you through what it means, where to track it, and how to use it responsibly in your strategy.
What you’ll learn
By the end of this module, you’ll understand:
- What “whales” are, and what on-chain data means
- How large holders (whales) have moved betting or prediction market prices, using real examples
- How to watch whale activity and use it in your own betting strategy
- Key warnings and limits so you don’t misinterpret the data
Contents
- 1 What are whales & on-chain data?
- 2 Real example: Polymarket & the “Trump Whale”
- 3 How whale activity influences betting markets
- 4 How to track whale moves
- 5 How to use this information in your betting strategy
- 6 Advantages & Disadvantages
- 7 Who should consider tracking whales in betting?
- 8 Conclusion: swim with the whales, don’t get swept
What are whales & on-chain data?
Whales are crypto holders or bettors with very large balances. Their single transactions or bets can be big enough to affect prices or odds.
On-chain data means transactions recorded on a blockchain. Since blockchains are public, big transfers of crypto (in or out) can be seen by anyone — you don’t need inside access.
Together, seeing whales move money or place large bets on chain gives you early signals of where markets might shift.
Real example: Polymarket & the “Trump Whale”
In 2024, a bettor known as Théo, operating under several aliases including Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, placed more than US$30 million in wagers on Polymarket backing Donald Trump to win the U.S. Presidency. Because Polymarket is a relatively illiquid platform compared to traditional sportsbooks, these huge bets had an outsized effect on pricing. Trump’s implied odds of victory surged well above levels seen in mainstream polls as the whale’s positions dominated the market.
When the election result was confirmed, the whale’s gamble paid off handsomely. Reports estimated that the combined accounts earned more than US$48 million in profit, making it one of the most successful political betting trades ever recorded on-chain.
This case shows how whale activity can dramatically reshape odds in smaller markets — and how on-chain transparency allows anyone to observe it happening in real time.
How whale activity influences betting markets
| Mechanism | How it works | Why beginners should care |
| Odds shifting | When a whale stakes a lot on one outcome, bookmakers or market platforms adjust odds to balance risk. | If you spot the odds moving, you may be seeing a whale’s influence. Acting before big shifts can give you value. |
| Sentiment ripple | Large bets attract attention. Others see the odds change and may follow, or media reports on big wagers, influencing confidence in that outcome. | You might get “follow the crowd” moves; sometimes profitable, but risky if crowd sentiment is wrong. |
| Low liquidity exaggeration | In smaller markets (like niche events or smaller platforms), less money is needed for a whale to push the price a lot. | These moves are bigger, faster, but also more volatile where risk of being misled is higher. |
Myth: “Whales always win”
False. Even that Polymarket whale saw large unrealized losses before the election result came in. Big stakes amplify both gains and losses.
How to track whale moves
Watch on-chain explorers & analytics tools
Use blockchain explorers (e.g. Etherscan) or dashboards (like Arkham Intelligence) to see large deposits or wallet activity. For example, the “Trump Whale” was spotted because analysts saw big deposits from exchange wallets into Polymarket prediction markets.
Whale Alert systems
If you want to keep an eye on whales, the easiest way is to set up Whale Alert systems. These are services that ping you whenever a huge chunk of crypto moves on-chain. If millions of USDT suddenly get sent into a sportsbook or prediction market, there’s a good chance a whale is about to place a serious bet.
You don’t need to build your own tracker — there are already free tools you can follow:
- Whale Alert on X (Twitter) posts real-time alerts whenever large transfers hit the blockchain. You’ll see messages like “10,000 BTC transferred from unknown wallet to Binance.”
- Lookonchain goes a step further. Instead of just showing raw transfers, they highlight patterns — for example, pointing out when a whale accumulates tokens or sends funds into DeFi or prediction markets.
- Santiment offers dashboards that track whale wallet activity across multiple coins, with charts and insights into how these moves are shifting sentiment.
Following a couple of these accounts (or setting up notifications) gives you a live feed of whale movements. That way, when a big wallet suddenly moves millions into a betting platform, you’re one of the first to know, and you can decide if that signal fits your strategy.
Prediction market platforms
A prediction market is like a betting exchange on the blockchain. Instead of the bookmaker setting the odds, the odds are set by how much money people put on each side.
The useful part for you is that it’s transparent. You can see how much money is going on “Yes” and how much is going on “No.” When a lot of money suddenly floods in, the odds shift straight away.
That doesn’t prove a whale is behind it — but if you see the odds jump and the amount of money in the market shoot up at the same time, it often means a very large bettor has just made their move. What you’re seeing is the ripple effect of their bet.
Cross-checking external data
When you see odds swing in a prediction market, don’t just assume the whales know something you don’t. Always cross-check against outside information — news reports, injury updates, polls, or stats.
If nothing has changed in the real world but the odds have suddenly moved, there’s a good chance a big bettor has pushed the market. That can create an opportunity for you, but only if your own research still supports the bet.
How to use this information in your betting strategy
- Early entry: If you detect a whale loading up on an outcome you also believe in (based on your own research), consider placing your bet before the odds shift.
- Limit risk: Don’t follow whales blindly. Use your bankroll management system, so you don’t over-expose. Even in the Polymarket case, the whale had unrealized losses shortly before the result.
- Use odds movement as a signal, not proof: Big bets moving odds don’t guarantee outcomes. They increase probability, but upsets still happen. Always check fundamentals.
- Watch liquidity & market size: Whale moves matter most in smaller/thinner markets. If the market is deep (many bettors, large volume), a whale’s impact is smaller. If shallow, impact is bigger (and riskier).
Advantages & Disadvantages
- Advantages: Provides early signals, can yield value before market moves, adds context to odds changes.
- Disadvantages: On-chain data may lag or mislead, whales can be wrong, risk of overreacting to big moves.
Who should consider tracking whales in betting?
Whale-watching is most useful for bettors who:
- Bet with crypto or use on-chain prediction markets
- Pay close attention to odds shifts and market movements
- Prefer using data and timing rather than pure intuition
It may be less appealing if you:
- Bet casually for entertainment only
- Stick mainly to virtual sports
- Play in large, liquid markets where whale moves won’t shift odds much
Myth: “Whale moves = correct prediction”
Not necessarily. Huge bets can be speculative, hedges against other positions, or even attempts to sway perception. Odds movement is a signal worth noticing — but it’s never a guarantee.
Conclusion: swim with the whales, don’t get swept
Whales are powerful. In crypto betting markets, they’ve shown they can tilt odds and shape sentiment. On-chain data lets you see these moves as they happen.
But a signal is not certainty. Use whale activity as one tool among many: combine it with research, bankroll discipline, and clear strategy. Whether it’s crypto markets or even virtual sports betting, the same rule applies — follow the data, not the noise.
