Cloudbet's Power Rankings
The second legs of the last four fixtures in the Champions League group of 16 are being played this weekend, determining who will fill the last of the eight quarter-final spots.
These games will be played at scheduled home grounds, after which the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final will be decided in one-leg matches played in Lisbon, Portugal at either the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica or the Estádio José Alvalade - homes to Benfica and Sporting Clube de Portugal, respectively.
Cloudbet has done its analysis - based on closing line prices over the season, current form and player availability - to create a definitive list of power rankings (the headline number in bold) for those teams still involved in the business end of the competition.
Who looks most likely to lift the trophy in Lisbon on 23 August?
Remaining second-leg fixtures:
- Bayern (3) v Chelsea (0)
- Barcelona (1) v Napoli (1)
- Manchester City (2) v Real Madrid (1)
- Juventus (0) v Lyon (1)
- Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain
- RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid
- Napoli/Barcelona v Bayern/Chelsea
- Real Madrid/Man City v Lyon/Juventus
95 Manchester City
Nine wins from 12 games since the restart, but form away from the Etihad is a concern with four defeats from seven games on the road. After recent surgery, Aguero will be short of match fitness and a likely impact sub, while Sane has left for Bayern.
Despite these issues, City are the team to beat with proven internationals De Bruyne, Sterling, Mahrez and the Silvas in good form - and with a point to prove after losing their EPL crown, and almost losing their right to play UCL football next season. Odds: 4.45
90 FC Bayern
Eleven straight wins after the two-month break saw Bayern win the German league and cup double at a canter. In previous seasons, a lack of domestic competitiveness has caused them to lose to more battle-hardened teams in intense, competitive, end-of-season fixtures.
FCB’s starting XI has developed into an eclectic mix of young talent - like Alphonso Davies, Benjamin Pavard and Kingsley Coman - backed up with experienced veterans - Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Müller, Ivan Perišić and Manuel Neuer - meaning no other team is going into the final stages with more confidence than the Bavarians. Odds: 4.00
87 Real Madrid
Despite inheriting an ageing squad lacking the Galacticos of yesteryear, Zinedine Zidane chases an unprecedented 14th European title for Los Blancos.
With Sergio Ramos, Marcelo, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Karim Benzema all the wrong side of 30, it was an extraordinary coaching achievement to overcome Barca and take the La Liga crown, especially with supposed superstars Eden Hazard and Gareth Bale largely anonymous.
However, before the final stages in Lisbon, Real travel to Manchester City with a first-leg deficit (and away goals disadvantage) to overcome. Odds: 21.0
86 Paris Saint-Germain
PSG’s last competitive fixture was in early March. There are two domestic cup matches along with three friendlies on their schedule, but the premature curtailment of the French season means PSG go into the final stages at a competitive disadvantage.
The long lay-off is likely to impact match fitness for Neymar, Icardi et al, while the recent ankle injury to Kylian Mbappe means PSG’s emerging global superstar won’t play in the quarter finals and could miss the semis. Odds: 6.00
86 FC Barcelona
A multitude of problems face Barca in their quest for a sixth Champions League title - starting with their scratchy La Liga form enabling a bang-average Real Madrid to take the league title, through to player unrest, a cash-strapped 2021, and allegations that the players have lost confidence in coach Quique Setien to the extent that we cant be sure how long the manager will be in place. Even more questions arise over player recruitment, highlighted by the perplexing acquisition of Antoine Griezmann from counter-attacking Atletico Madrid.
All that aside, any team with Lionel Messi ably supported by Suarez, Fati and de Jong, are capable of reaching, and winning the final. Odds: 9.00
A bold but justifiable ranking sees Atalanta currently the best of the three Italian marques left in the tournament. Unbeaten since the restart with eight wins and three draws, free-scoring Atalanta are capable of upsetting more fashionable clubs. Gasparini’s team revolves around Argentinian playmaker Alejandro “Papu” Gomez, supported by marauding full-backs and Colombians Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata up front. This enterprising and innovative team go into the PSG match full of confidence and tipped by sharp (pro) bettors to eliminate the French champions. Odds: 11.0
Led by 35-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, Juve boast a wealth of experience at this level. Having captured a ninth consecutive Scudetto with two Serie A rounds remaining, coach Sarri was expected to rest his ageing superstars before attempting to overhaul a 1-0 deficit against Lyon in the round of the Last 16. The fact that he declined may yet impact Juve’s performance through August.
While the skills of arguably the greatest player ever are in decline, CR7 is supported in attack by the enigmatic Paulo Dybala, who has been in scintillating form recently. Odds: 16.0
81 Atletico Madrid
Atleti have lived the past season on a precipice given the steep repayments required to finance a brand new, yet empty stadium.
With a rebuilt defence and injuries, Simeone’s team struggled badly until Christmas when an unlikely Spanish Cup win over Barca in Riyadh sparked a revival. With Diego Costa fit, Marcus Llorente an emerging attacking talent, and Joao Felix finding form, Atletico found the competitiveness and resilience of previous Simeone teams to knock out holders Liverpool and finish third to ensure Champions League riches next season. The amended format is likely to suit the tenacious, well organized and experienced AM team. Odds: 8.50
Some good games, some bad - but overall, a mediocre end to an average Neapolitan season. The tough schedule since the restart doesn’t suit an ageing, hard-working squad lacking depth, but if Hysaj, Zielinski and Koulibaly can keep Messi and Suarez in check, it’s an excellent opportunity for Napoli to overcome a weakened Barcelona with Bayern waiting in the semi-finals. Odds: 51.0
78 RB Leipzig
Thanks to their moneybags owners and fast-tracked rise to the top, Leipzig are currently the most hated club in Germany, and must face Atletico in the quarter-finals without Chelsea-bound star striker Timo Werner. But they do have the youngest squad in the Bundesliga.
In the absence of Werner, Patrick Schick is expected to lead the line, with talented Frenchmen Konate, Upamecano and Nkunku completing the new-look spine. Odds: 13.5
Much like PSG, five months of inactivity will be a major handicap as Lyon take a 1-0 first-leg lead to Turin, where Ronaldo and friends await. A well-timed Coupe de la Ligue final against PSG on 1 August will likely be a strong indication of Rudy Garcia’s starting XI for the Juve clash as Europe’s biggest clubs circle around a plethora of talented young players ahead of the summer transfer window. Odds: 76.0
Last year’s winners, Liverpool, overturned a 3-0 deficit to Barcelona in the semi-final at Anfield.
This year, Chelsea travels to Bayern’s Allianz Arena after a first-leg 3-0 defeat with, by our calculations, only a 1.2% chance of progressing to the quarter finals. We won’t waste your time. Odds: 76.0
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