NFL: Week 11 - Catch and release
In focus this week, three receiving prop markets in games that all have post-season implications, with the Ravens blitz, the Texans' containment defence and a Vikings rookie in the spotlight.
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After all three of last week’s suggested prop market bets came through, it feels like we’ve hit a purple patch in terms of offering our players potential value in their wagering - a hot streak, if you will.
This may seem counterintuitive for a sportsbook, but hey - who doesn’t like happy customers?
Each of the three games chosen this week contains playoff implications, and if you choose to take some of these suggestions on board, you may just find yourself in post-season form too after Week 11.
Week 11 action
AJ Brown - WR Tennessee Titans. Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (1.84)
The fun thing about the Ravens is that they give Cover 0 looks more than any other team. The hilarious stat behind this fact is that the only team that can even come close to that figure is their AFC North counterparts, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Cover 0 is an all-out blitz that leaves no safety help and every non-blitzer in man coverage.
We expect AJ Brown to get a lot of single-coverage looks, meaning he could take one of these plays to the house - landing this total in a matter of seconds.
The best way to beat straight-up off-coverage is to double-move a corner, and Brown is one of the slickest route-runners in the NFL.
Baltimore also don’t rotate corners, meaning Vrabel can motion him to either side of the formation to dictate a more favourable matchup.
Poetry in motion.
Jakobi Meyers - WR New England Patriots. Over 4.5 Receptions (1.78)
The Texans are one of the most disciplined contain defences in all of the NFL, meaning that Cam Newton will be forced to throw from the pocket.
While doing this, he will look to his short route targets - and Meyers is the chief suspect; the perfect replacement for Julian Edelman in that blueprint.
Meyers may not rack up significant yardage, which leads us to the reception market rather than the big number totals in yards - and New England will take that in a heartbeat, especially as they’ll want to control the clock against a team that almost always runs the ball on first down.
This New England team is far from great, but if you give them what they want, they’ll take it and with some aplomb. Meyers benefits here more than most; particularly as Rex Burkhead got the most looks last week - and you generally can’t send your top linebacker to cover both when they’re on opposite sides of the formation.
Justin Jefferson - WR Minnesota Vikings. Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (1.83)
Jefferson has been the most impressive offensive rookie this season in my book, and PFF grades could well support this assertion.
He’s capable of lining up anywhere, and while Mike McCarthy’s gameplan always features taking out the opposition’s best primary receiver, it leaves Jefferson singled on the opposite flank.
Dallas’s defence has been decimated and they can’t run the ball effectively anymore, which means expect the Vikings to get a lot of offensive snaps.
Jefferson’s big games come when teams sell out to stop the run on early downs, and this is the approach he can expect here.
Don’t be surprised if you see the Vikes call his number early in this rather than later - which should make for an ideal day at the office for Ryan Tannehill.
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