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A comprehensive guide to bitcoin betting the 2019 Oscars

As American society undergoes upheaval, the Academy Awards - an American institution - does the same. While the idea behind the awards, the landscape on which they’re awarded is forever changing, with the basis they’re voted upon and the electorate who casts those votes having undergone startling changes.

A Whole New World

It was less than a year ago that the Academy tried to introduce a new “popular film” category, an indication that it recognised modernisation measures were needed. While that measure didn’t take, expansion of the electorate with a focus on women and minorities did. This year, it will be a vastly different academy deciding the results, and that means increased potential for different results.

The changes in electorate could mean a renewed focus on some of society’s most-pressing issues; recognition of persons of colour, women and films echoing such struggles. Throw in a changing Hollywood landscape that sees companies like Netflix suddenly dominating and you have shifting allegiances that affect the very human voters who will decide who the winners are.

Below, we reflect on these changes and how they’ll affect the Awards’ six biggest categories. Using the social trends that will influence the voters, along with the major data points offered by the previous award shows and Academy traditions like “it’s their time”, we can give ourselves a strong understanding of how things will play out.

Once you’ve reflected on what we have to say below, you can go to Cloudbet’s Academy Awards markets to place your bets.

Best Picture

Beyond a doubt, the most anticipated award of the year.

The Nominees

·   Black Panther (at 18.8) - The first Marvel film ever nominated for best picture. It’s an imperfect film, but a socially important one that was enjoyed by just about everyone.

·   BlacKkKlansman (at 27.5) - A scathing social commentary from scathing social commenter Spike Lee.

·   Bohemian Rhapsody (at 20.4) - A film whose nomination routes from its enjoyable subject matter rather than its artistry. Bohemian Rhapsody has had a troubled road with Director Bryan Singer fired three weeks before completion, still getting a director’s credit and then being implicated in scandal.

·   The Favourite (at 13.7) - A fun, female-dominated tale of a queen and the ladies fighting for her affection. Widely enjoyed, but it hasn’t gotten a lot of best picture talk.

·   Green Book (at 5.68) - The cautionary tale of this year’s awards. Written by the son of the Caucasian protagonist, it’s a look at a blue collar white man who teaches an African American genius about life. Takes on that trope have scalded and scolded and may have left Green Book’s chances in their wake.

·   Roma (at 1.35) - Netflix’s content-first attitude in an era dominated by superhero blockbusters appears to be the favourite going into February.

·   A Star Is Born (at 15.6) - In an effort reminiscent of Dances With Wolves, Bradley Cooper Directed and starred in this sprawling American epic. Unlike Costner though, Cooper was snubbed as a director, an indication the film may fall short of its Oscar aspirations.

·   Vice (at 82.4) - Adam McKay’s reminder that American politics was far from perfect before Trump.

Awards Season Notes

The previous awards shows, often a strong indication of which way the academy is leaning due to dual membership, has left us with more questions than answers for the 2019 Best Picture. Netflix’s Roma was the Critics’ Choice winner, then Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book won the two Best Picture Golden Globes. 

As if that wasn’t confusing enough, the Screen Actors Guild gave its best picture equivalent (performance by an ensemble) to Black Panther. This may truly be anyone’s game.

…and the Winner is:

Likely to be Roma (at 1.35). The Green Book looked strong after its Globes’ win, but has had a rocky road since, thanks to complaints from the family of inaccuracies. The film’s white-guy-teaches-black-guy-about-life trope isn’t sitting well with the decidedly left-leaning voters and thus, it may have peaked. 

If you’re looking for a very dark horse, Black Panther may be your bet after the SAGs, but the reality is that Roma is a beautiful film whose Mexican setting might appeal to that same left-leaning electorate beyond it simply excelling at the artistic elements of film.


Best Director

The Nominees

·      Spike Lee (at 10.0) - BlacKkKlansman

·      Pawel Pawlikowski (at 28.6) - Cold War

·      Yorgos Lanthimos (at 28.6) - The Favourite

·      Alfonso Cuarón (at 1.08) - Roma

·      Adam McKay (at 28.6) - Vice

Awards Season Notes

Critic’s choice - Cuarón

Globes - Cuarón

Potential Legacy Winner

Spike Lee, whose omission from the 1990 best Director category has long been mentioned as being amongst the greatest snubs in Oscar history.

…and the Winner is:

Either Cuarón (at 1.08) or Lee (at 10.0). Cuarón is loved by… well, everybody, and is well-recognized as a master, one whose effort here is as close to flawless as any of the season. Lee opted to boycott the Academy after his snub almost 30 years ago. His victory would a) serve as a strong legacy play b) make up for that snub and c) play into the Academy’s liberal push. We can’t urge you enough; don’t underestimate the importance of that element.


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Best Actor

The Nominees

·      Rami Malek (at 1.20) - Bohemian Rhapsody

·      Christian Bale (at 4.61) - Vice

·      Bradley Cooper (at 14.1) - A Star is Born

·      Viggo Mortensen (at 75.8) - Green Book

·      Willem Dafoe (at 193) - At Eternity’s Gate

Awards Season Notes

Bale and Malek split the season down the middle, with Bale winning Critic’s Choice and one Golden Globe while Malek won SAG and the other.

Potential Legacy Winner:

Dafoe, but there’s been very little buzz for him. His performance as Vincent Van Gogh was touching and compelling, but this award seems destined to go elsewhere.

…and the Winner is:

Bale (at 4.61) or Malek (at 1.20), and it’s close. With the odds where they are, given Bale’s awards success this year, suggest he may be offering value right now.


Best Actress

The Nominees

·   Glenn Close (at 1.11) - The Wife

·   Olivia Colman (at 7.62) - The Favourite

·   Lady Gaga (at 11.5) - A Star is Born

·   Yalitza Aparicio (at 28.0) - Roma

·   Melissa McCarthy (at 117) - Can you Ever Forgive Me?  

Awards Season Notes

Glenn Close won everything, splitting Critic’s Choice with Lady Gaga while Coleman won the other Golden Globe

Potential Legacy Winner:

Close.

…and the Winner is:

Close (at 1.11)…not close (sorry). This is a lifetime achievement award for one of the industry’s greatest actors, who will win despite a less-than-challenging role in a mediocre film that no one will ever see after the awards are given out. Politics of glory.


Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees

·      Mahershala Ali (at 1.05) - Green Book

·      Richard E. Grant  (at 11.1) - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

·      Sam Elliott (at 15.6) - A Star is Born

·      Sam Rockwell (at 46.4) - Vice

·      Adam Driver (at 51.2) - BlacKKKlansman

Awards Season Notes

Mahershala Ali won all three of the major awards.

Potential Legacy Winner:

Sam Elliott, who everyone loves and who has been around forever.

…and the Winner is:

Likely? Ali (at 1.05). Those previous awards are strong indicators, especially when someone sweeps. Ali is one of our fastest-rising stars. The one question concerns the blowback Green Book is suffering; if it’s strong enough to push the electorate elsewhere, Grant or Elliott could sneak their way in, but it would be a tremendous shock.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees

·   Regina King (at 1.42) - If Beale Street Could Talk

·   Amy Adams (at 3.77) - Vice

·   Rachel Weisz (at 9.72) - The Favourite

·   Emma Stone (at 21.0) - The Favourite

·   Marina De Tavira (at 24.7) - Roma

Awards Season Notes

At the start of the season, the two ladies from The Favourite were the talk, but that quickly switched to Regina King when she won the Golden Globe. King also won the Critics’ Choice. Strangely, King wasn’t even nominated for the SAG - won by Emily Blunt. You may have noticed Blunt isn’t nominated here - or at the BAFTA.

Potential Legacy Winner:

Amy Adams, who is seemingly nominated for an Oscar every year but has yet to win one.

…and the Winner is:

It feels like King (at 1.42) , though her absence from the SAG and BAFTA ballots made that less certain. It’s entirely possible (given a late release and lack of Best Picture nomination) that large portions of the electorate didn’t see If Beale Street Could Talk, which could hurt her chances. Adams would also be a deserving winner, both for her work on Vice and her overall performances over the last decade. This is her sixth nomination since 2005.


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Posted on 2019-02-13

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