In what promises to be one of the biggest fights of 2019 for bitcoin bettors, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Daniel Jacobs will square off at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 4. Alvarez will put his WBA (Super), WBC, The Ring, and lineal middleweight titles on line against Jacobs, in a bid to unify the division by winning Jacobs’ IBF belt.
What does the analysis say?
Both fighters are currently at the peak of their careers and bring an abundance of experience to the table. Canelo is arguably the biggest attraction in boxing and has been involved in plenty of big fights, so won’t be fazed by the event or the occasion. The 28 year-old possesses skill, power, and hits his opponents with very clean and precise punches whilst using the ring methodically, and has the rare gift to stay inside by using great defence and combination punching which makes him exceptionally difficult to beat.
Canelo’s durability is another key advantage in this fight. When the Mexican defeated Golovkin he was able to endure numerous heavy punches and keep moving forward. The fact he was able to withstand everything that Golovkin threw at him and appear relatively unfazed bodes well for the fight against Jacobs, who doesn’t punch as hard as the powerful Kazakh.
Jacobs is from Brownsville in New York, the tough Brooklyn neighbourhood that has produced numerous top level fighters, including former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson. The American brings a height and reach advantage into the fight and will need to utilise this if he wants to be victorious.
A decorated amateur, Jacobs has won a U.S. national title, which proves he carries the fundamentals needed in the professional game to compete at the highest level, and he does possess the skill-set to win rounds and give Canelo problems.
Alvarez has fought and beaten better opponents than Jacobs, and it seems that when analysing the two fighters the Mexican is always a step ahead in most areas. In his last few fights, Jacobs has beaten solid opposition in Serhiy Derevianchenko, Maciej Sulecki and Luis Arias, whilst Canelo has a win and a draw with Gennady Golovkin.
Will Jacobs prove to be too hard a test?
Labelled the “Miracle Man” because of his astounding recovery from cancer, Jacobs is a confident fighter who will be coming to win the fight and not make up the numbers – which makes him a dangerous opponent.
The American’s most recent loss was to old Canelo foe, Gennady Golovkin in 2017, in a fight many observers and experts felt that he had done enough to win. The IBF champion has been victorious in his last three bouts by decision, and it is likely his tactics and game plan will be to take Alvarez to the cards in this fight – as it is highly unlikely he will win by knockout.
What do the odds tell us?
Saul Alvarez, at 28, and with vast amounts of experience at the highest level is the justified favourite at odds of 1.22. The Mexican is close to becoming a complete fighter, and his technique, knockout power, distance control, and defence is a level above Jacobs and this is reflected in the odds.
Canelo is the most proven middleweight in the world at present, but Jacobs is the taller, rangier, and physically the bigger fighter, so stylistically, Jacobs brings plenty of advantages himself to the table. The 32 year-old knows how to change styles from southpaw to orthodox. He knows how to move in the ring, and has experience of similar level to Canelo, but the betting edge comes from the elite talent and pedigree that Alvarez brings into this fight.
Who will win the fight?
In what will be an extremely good fight, the work rate, size, and skillset of Jacobs is likely to give Canelo problems at phases in the bout, but the Mexican is more versatile than Jacobs, so the physical advantages that Jacobs holds will need to be successful in all areas if he is to win.
Canelo is very difficult to beat due to his outstanding punch quality, great chin, and experience, and is also often the A side in fights, with a history of favourable decisions from judges. So for Jacobs to get a decision against the Mexican he would need to win convincingly, or via stoppage, and against such a skilled fighter like Canelo, that’s a very difficult task.
It will be a competitive fight and Danny Jacobs will come to win but it is unlikely to be enough. Jacobs has been knocked out in the past by Dmitry Pirog back in 2010, and dropped by both Gennady Golovkin and Sergio Mora, so if anyone is to be dropped or knocked out in this fight it is likely it will be Jacobs, but the smart pick is Canelo to win via decision.
Pick: Canelo (at 1.22) by decision