NFL: Week Seven - Smaller numbers, still big plays

Oct 22, 2020

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You could very easily make a case that Week Seven is going to provide us with the most scintillating group of games thus far.

The slate is red hot, and it sees not only two 5-0 teams come face-to-face but also a whole host of important divisional games that could sway momentum in title races all over the nation.

We're not sure we’ve been this excited for a regular season group of matchups in years. Let’s take a look at some favourable lines?

Week Seven action

Derrick Henry - RB Tennessee Titans. Over 8.5 Receiving Yards 1.79

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5 1.91) @ Tennessee Titans (-1.5 1.95)

Now, you're unlikely to see as a low a yardage line suggested again for the remainder of the season, but hear us out on this.

Henry is normally not in on obvious passing situations - that’s why his reception totals are so low (his receiving yards per game are actually up on average this year, but his career average remains sub-10). However, Tennessee will do everything in their power to not make their passing plays arrive in obvious passing situations - because they’re playing a Steelers team that is pressuring nearly half of their opposition’s dropbacks.

Henry has picked up receptions in four of his five games thus far, which is more than at this point in 2019. He has exceeded this total in three of those, and none of those games were against teams with necessarily dominant pass-rushing abilities.

Given he went for 52 yards last week in the passing game, it’s a formula that Mike Vrabel clearly should exploit more.

It starts here.

Patrick Mahomes - QB Kansas City Chiefs. 32.5 Pass Attempts (Under 33.5 1.73)

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5 1.93) @ Denver Broncos (+9.5 1.92)

There are very few people in the world who have the familiarity with Patrick Mahomes that Vic Fangio does.

Last week, the Chiefs stumped the Bills on the ground, and Mahomes could rest up. He simply does not have that luxury against Denver, who will do everything in their power to ensure he has to throw the ball a lot.

That might sound confusing, but the 62-year-old knows that this ground game is now multi-faceted, and the sooner you can get the Chiefs into four-wide personnel, they become significantly more predictable.

The Raiders did this in the third and fourth quarters, and the Broncos will try the same. Mahomes will have no choice but to try and win the game with his arm. Whether he does or not is of no significance to us, thankfully.

George Kittle - TE San Francisco 49ers. Over 5.5 Receptions 1.80

San Francisco 49ers (+2 1.01) @ New England Patriots (-2 1.94)

Raheem Mostert is undoubtedly headed to injury reserve after his ankle sprain last Sunday in the win over the Rams.

That leaves McKinnon in the backfield with an inexperienced rookie. If you recall the 49ers' game plan against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year, when the running game was predictable on early downs, they swiftly moved to screens, with Kittle being the primary beneficiary.

With Samuel back on the field, they can now stretch the deep middle thanks to his post route-running ability, and play-action should be heavily utilised against a Patriots team severely lacking leadership at the linebacking position.

After all, if you wanted to beat the Patriots, you’d probably try and avoid Gilmore too, wouldn’t you?

Simple, safe completions. The obvious way to beating New England is by out-New Englanding them. Kyle Shanahan knows this.