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Week Four in the NFL, and offensive blueprints are now largely set in stone - meaning we know precisely what kind of plays each team will hope to run. With that in mind, we’ve also now got a firmer handle on just what percentage of snaps each skill player will partake in, which is a huge benefit.
Here are three Under/Over yardage prop markets that may be of interest this weekend.
Week Four - Mixing it up
Alvin Kamara RB New Orleans Saints. Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (1.81)
New Orleans Saints (-4.5 1.95) @ Detroit Lions (+4.5 1.91)
We realise this is a big name, but Kamara has nearly become more known for his pass-catching abilities than anything else.
When New Orleans face off against Detroit, Matt Patricia can be expected to employ man coverage, meaning the middle area of the field will more than likely be clear in heavy passing situations.
With those vacated spaces, expect New Orleans to run a lot of sneaky draw plays and counters to spring Kamara clear.
It’s a strange thing to say - that a running back can be more prominent in the passing game, but that’s now the trend in the league.
Facing a team that wants to try and take that element away in man-for-man sets, means utilising the mismatches - and an argument can be made to say there isn’t a single player in the league who can manage Kamara by themselves.
Especially with the experience of the offensive line he can boast in front of them him.
Baker Mayfield - QB Cleveland Browns. Over 271.5 Passing Yards (1.85)
Cleveland Browns (+4.5 1.92) @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5 1.94)
Baker Baker, Touchdown Maker.
Since his opening week embarrassment, Mayfield has looked assured and the Kevin Stefanski offense that suits him certainly does him more favours than the previous regime ever did.
Cleveland run quite a vertical offense and while that’s generally ineffective against the Cowboys, it merely opens up their big plays underneath – screens, bootleg crossers and level concepts.
As the Cowboys try to get past their major health issues, particularly at the linebacking positions, they’re now having to slot in run-stopping backers into pass sets.
This gives offensive players a massive edge - and expect Baker to make them pay.
Cooper Kupp - WR LA Rams. Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (1.82)
Los Angeles Rams (-13.5 1.95) v New York Giants (+13.5 1.90)
The New York Giants have the personnel, in theory. They just no longer have the belief or the energy to carry out tough assignments against a multi-faceted offense like the one Sean McVay directs.
Losing Saquon Barkley and being taken to the cleaners in their first three games is going to be very tough on any team’s morale - especially one that felt it never quite got the rejig it needed from the get-go.
As offensive players go down, the defense is now on the field more, and given a lack of star depth, they’re struggling with conditioning.
This looks set up for the Rams to go to town as they tend to, but with Kupp, they’re going to be handed free yards over and over again.
Kupp’s pre-snap motion is a sight to behold, and once Goff signals for him to move out of his base receiver spot, expect to see the confusion on New York faces.
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