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Week 15 action
In case you’re wondering, this writer’s Super Bowl picks, in order of preference, are the Los Angeles Rams, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs.
So it only makes sense that the three prop lines we give you this week feature a look at each of them and how we can find value in understanding how each will plan for the opposition taking away an element of their offenses.
Welcome to Week 15 - where playoff places start getting distributed and Carson Wentz still looks incompetent.
Josh Allen - QB Buffalo Bills. Under 35.5 Pass Attempts (1.88)
Buffalo Bills (-6 1.91) @ Denver Broncos (+6 1.95)
Buffalo are creative to a degree, but they know to keep some of their best trick plays for when they play against the best-coached defenses.
Vic Fangio and the Broncos may have underachieved this year in the win-loss column, but they’ve consistently overachieved on both the defensive front and the secondary, despite losing key defensive backs, linemen and pass rushers early in the season or in training camp.
They provide more stunts than anyone when it comes to getting pressures, and the Bills know they can’t slow that down consistently without utilising three things:
Misdirection. Running the ball on second down. Trick plays.
Each of these integrations probably result in Allen dropping back in the pocket a tonne and letting loose, because if they don't they're asking for trouble, no matter how good that line has been this year.
Cam Akers - RB LA Rams. Take the Over on Rushing Yards
New York Jets (+17.5 1.96) @ LA Rams (-17.5 1.89)
The Rams can throw the ball for 400 yards against the Jets if they want to, but it’s of no real benefit. They know they need to limit injuries, pick up a win and take as much off the clock as possible. The Jets will probably max out at 10 points and the easiest way to accomplish all of the above while hiding some of your “play-off plays”, is to run the ball efficiently.
While the Los Angeles backfield may have been a no-go for fantasy owners, it seems that anyone who stuck with Cam Akers knowing they spent draft capital on him are now justified for their persistence.
He’s clearly the lead rusher and will take a lot of handoffs here against a Jets defense that’s, admittedly, better against the run than the pass. But the Rams run fits are clever enough to get past that, and there’s no doubt it will be their focal point early on.
Tyreek Hill - WR Kansas City Chiefs. Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (1.84)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3 1.92) @ New Orleans Saints (+3 2.07)
Yes, he can get this in one play. We’re aware.
But the reason the Saints defense has been considerably better than it had any right to be this season is because they knock you off your primary read and make you look elsewhere.
Watch for the Saints to use bracket coverage to Hill’s side of the formation and entice Mahomes underneath. After all, Travis Kelce is only a handful of yards away from the lead in receiving yards in the league anyway.
He’s hardly a bad second option when it comes down to it now, is he?
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