NFL: Week 12 - Recovery weekend

And just like that - it’s over for another year...

If you’ve done Thanksgiving correctly, you’re still turkey-hungover and finding stuffing behind your couch.

There’s nothing quite like leftover sandwiches, though – so grab a couple of those bad boys, take a seat and check out some of the rest of Week 12 action.

Darren Waller - TE Las Vegas Raiders. Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (1.84)

Las Vegas Raiders (-3 1.97) @ Atlanta Falcons (+3 1.89) - a zero margin game

The Atlanta Falcons have figured it out.

What we mean by that, is that they’re not giving up chunk plays deep time and time again anymore.

Remember that Curtis Samuel trick play that beat them a few weeks ago? That’s what you need to do to beat them deep now, which is probably making Dan Quinn question his career’s work right at this very moment.

They play deep zones - either Cover 2 or Cover 3 - and the way to beat those is by running seam routes with your tight end and skinny posts from your slot receiver to put the central safety in a bind.

Waller is one of the most refined route runners at the tight end position and understands how to play leverage against defenders.

Atlanta is the most perfect defense for Derek Carr’s favourite target because their primary focus will be on Ruggs and the rejuvenated Agholor.

This is death by a thousand cuts rather than one fell swoop. Pick your poison, Atlanta.

Josh Allen - QB Buffalo Bills. Under 284.5 Passing Yards (1.82)

LA Chargers (+5 1.91) @ Buffalo Bills (-5 1.94)

There are a couple reasons we see value here - and they mainly lie with the fact that the Chargers’ interior was ripped apart by an uninspiring Jets offensive line last week, so there’s no need for the Bills to try and throw the ball deep off anything other than play-action, especially with Bosa on the field.

Allen should definitely be able to take advantage of the Chargers’ increased use of man coverage for scrambles, but both of those advantages take away from potential passing yards, and that’s important for this prop total.

While Casey Hayward has clearly lost a step and is no longer the Pro Bowl selection he once was, he’s being replaced by youngster Trevaughn Campbell who performed admirably last week. With Chris Harris also returning to the fold, we suspect Cole Beasley’s RAC capacity is also limited.

The Bills to win this one on the ground.

Taysom Hill - QB New Orleans Saints. Over 0.5 Interceptions

New Orleans Saints (-6 1.94) @ Denver Broncos (+6 1.92)

The experiment worked well for one week, but give Vic Fangio a chance to dial up pressures and spies, and he’ll make you pay.

The Broncos are the one team where Hill can’t really hide because they play instinctual football; cutting the easy completions and forcing him to go through his progressions.

Hill has neither the experience nor the savvy at the position to get past this unit time and time again - and if there were a market for over 1.5 interceptions, we’d probably be suggesting that.

Sean Payton may have got away with quirkiness for one week, but don't expect him to see the benefit of it again.

And finally....

It's worth a mention that in our Thanksgiving preview we flagged the Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers game which was postponed on the day due to a Raven's covid outbreak. It's since been pushed back to Sunday, but there are still question marks over when or if it'll take place... but we did suggest a prop market for the game if it does.  

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