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Week 10 action
For the first time we can recall, there seems to be an even split between 1pm EST and post-4pm EST kickoffs in the NFL.
This calls for a celebration.
Nothing involving party poppers or streamers or anything of that sort – but it allows the chance to sit back, relax and enjoy the early slate of games to our heart’s content… and to focus our wagering efforts on the late kickoffs.
Here are three prop markets that could spiral your Sunday into the end zone.
Justin Herbert - QB LA Chargers. Under 269.5 Passing Yards
LA Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (we're offering this game at zero margin, but you'll need to check back for the latest lines)
There are three reasons to select the under here: Xavien Howard, Kalen Ballage and Bryan Bulaga.
The first two relate to the existence of someone, and the third, the absence. Herbert’s yards may be well-spread, but his primary target on third down is Keenan Allen. Xavien Howard is one of a couple of corners that can shadow Allen and cover him one-on-one.
This takes away the easy completion for Howard to remain on the field and extend drives.
Secondly, Kalen Ballage returns to the Hard Rock Stadium looking for a little revenge on the team that cut him. Anthony Lynn will make him primary back in the absence of Justin Jackson, and his impressive showing so far means that he’s trusted now.
Finally, Bryan Bulaga has a back issue which saw him pulled early from the loss to Las Vegas. Trey Pipkins comes in at right tackle – and he’s a considerably better run blocker than pass blocker. This means Herbert won’t quite have the same attempts as he’s used to.
Alvin Kamara - RB New Orleans Saints. Over 5.5 Receptions
The 49ers play Cover 3 or Cover 4 on almost every snap. This has been the blueprint of Robert Saleh’s scheme for some time now and that won’t be changing up against a Saints team that can beat you deep consistently through Sanders and Smith.
Kamara then becomes the safety blanket for Brees – and the thing about Cover 3/4 shells is that the Niners will allow the ball in the hands of Kamara, as they’ll immediately react to the dump-off and try to tackle him in space.
While it doesn’t sound that wise to allow the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, that’s the entire premise of prevent systems: to allow reactionary tackling.
Remember - receptions don’t hurt you; yards do.
Josh Jacobs - RB Las Vegas Raiders. Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (1.82)
The Los Angeles Chargers rushed for 200 yards on Denver two weeks ago. The Chargers - the team who have rotated Sam Tevi, Trey Pipkins, Ryan Groy and Storm Norton on their offensive line.
Jacobs runs behind one of the most violent offensive lines in the country and their power run scheme matches that of the Chargers, so it’s an easy recipe for success you would think.
Especially when you consider that Las Vegas generally try not to pass the ball against divisional rivals as their scheme is still somewhat limited due to Carr’s football IQ.
Jacobs will get a lot of work between the tackles and it’s worth backing him to convert.
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