With the help of Berlin-based football writer @LGAmbrose, the Cloudbet Blog takes a look at what could be the crunch match in Group F, as favourites Germany take on Portugal - with CR7 hunting for the goals to crown him the greatest of all time.

Germany v Portugal is a match between two of the most successful nations of recent years, although both teams are in a transition period from their most recent best. Portugal seems to be managing this transition better for now, but both teams have huge strength in depth on the pitch. With Portugal coming late to beat a dogged, but unspectacular, Hungary, and Germany only going down by one (own) goal to world champions France, it is a brave task to make bold predictions about this game. 

That said, we can take insights from the opening round Group F matches to look for any potential value in the odds. 

1. No need to panic - Germany's defence looks solid

Jogi Löw is likely to stick with a back three - there's no need to panic after just one match, and a game that was close against the world champions. If Leon Goretzka is fully fit after missing the France match, he may come back in for Kai Havertz, but at the time of writing this remains unclear. Inserting another Bayern Munich player into the midfield would likely benefit the overall understanding of the team.

Germany winning to nil is a bit of an outside bet at 4.00, but not to be fully discounted.

2. Germany need to push for the win; a draw would suit Portugal

Germany need a response after their loss, but are likely to be nervous, while a draw would suit Portugal after their opening win. Against a team not as dominant as France, you have to believe that Germany will be able to create more dangerous situations. France may have won that first game, and deservedly so, but Germany competed against a team much more settled than themselves. They still saw a lot of the ball - more than 60% possession - and they didn't concede many chances.

There's still a long way to go in this tournament and if Germany do both of those things again against Portugal, they'll have a great shot. Germany are favourites over Portugal at 2.34, with Portugal at 3.32 and a draw at 3.40.

3. Germany's most dangerous players will fancy their chances

How good are Portugal? They're dangerous going forward, with Borussia Dortmund's Raphael Guerreiro joining the star-studded front four from left-back, but can be very conservative against good opposition. Their 3-0 win over Hungary was flattering, and if they play similarly, Germany will fancy their chances. Germany Total Goals over 1.5 at 2.33 looks well priced.

4. Löw sees Serge Gnabry as the main goal threat

Cloudbet odds seem to be aligned with this view, with Gnabry at any time goalscorer odds of 3.68 - and First Scorer odds at 8.35 appeal. Portugal's talismanic Cristiano Ronaldo, searching for the goals that will make him the highest international goal scorer in history, heads the pack at 2.43 to score, and 5.18 to score first (or last).

5. 3-4-3 means Germany will struggle to break down teams that keep things tight

Portugal will want to keep things tight knowing they're up against better opposition than Hungary, especially as they already have three points in the bag. In Germany's first game, they got a lot of possession, but struggled to break down the French defence and create real chances. Robin Gosens and Joshua Kimmich offer the team the most creativity, from the flanks.

The preferred under 2.5 goals is at 1.85 (the over at 2.05).

Cloudbet’s Outright markets

Cloudbet currently has over 115 special outright markets available for players to bet on for Euro 2020 - allowing any fan to back their team as far as they want to.

The outrights are also a great place to try to find value.

Interestingly, in the Group F winner market he order of favourites has switched for Germany and Portugal after the first round: France remains firm favourite to top the group (1.54), now followed by Portugal (3.13, from third), Germany (8.07, from second) and Hungary (rank outsiders at 247).

What's more, in the overall winner market, Portugal is placed at better odds than Germany - remaining fifth-favourite at 8.52, from 8.73 ahead of the first match - while Germany has slipped from sixth- at 9.04 ahead of the first round, to seventh-favourite at odds now of 12.00.

Of course, a loss to Germany tonight would mean Portugal's fate lies in them beating France, and Germany losing to Hungary. In the special When will Portugal be eliminated? market the odds are at 20.00 that they fail to get passed the group stage.

All odds are correct at the time of writing, but please check the live site for the latest levels.

Jun 18, 2021

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