Betting Strategy

Election 2020: It's finally official

After an unforgettable election - for so, so, many reasons - Congress has certified Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States and Kamala Harris as his vice president. Ever ones to look ahead, Cloudbet has already launched winners markets for the 2024 election.

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As the Cloudbet Blog stated from the very beginning, we are not here to offer political commentary or opinion, our focus remaining squarely on the betting markets and the odds of each candidate taking the election.

In our Election 2020 coverage, our focus was firmly on our Electoral College map, which reflected movements in winning-party markets for each state, and how those movements affected the presidential winner market in the race to 270 Electoral College votes.

Since Election Day - which seems so very long ago - President Trump, and his camp, continued to lay claim to voter fraud, attempted legal action to no avail, and made continuous statements that have stoked the ire of, and a fire in, his most ardent supporters.

This boiled over during the events on Wednesday that saw protesters mob the US Capitol, causing a six-hour delay to Congressional certification of the Electoral College vote.

Nonetheless, in the wee hours of Thursday morning, just after 3.40am, Vice President Pence declared Joe Biden the president-elect, with a certified Electoral College vote of 306 to President Trump’s 232.

A look at the states - recap

It had become clear fairly early on in the campaign which were the key swing states, and so for the most part that was where the Cloudbet Blog focussed its attention.

Florida and North Carolina were the most closely contested states for the majority of the campaign, but were joined by Arizona late in the day as the race tightened in The Grand Canyon State.

In the final stretch up to Election Day, Trump was polling within striking distance of Biden in Florida (48.8% Biden; 46.6% Trump), North Carolina (48.7% / 46.8%) and Arizona (48.8% / 45.8%) - three of the Sunshine Belt states that he won in 2016 (the other two being Georgia and Texas).

In the end, Florida’s 29 votes and North Carolina’s 15 votes went Red, while Arizona - a state that has only voted Blue twice since Harry Truman in 1948 - gave it’s 12 votes to the president-elect (the only other time was for Bill Clinton in 1996).

Incidentally, Congress was discussing Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Paul Gosar’s objection to Arizona’s electoral result when Trump supporters breached the US Capitol, delaying proceedings before they could reconvene.

Once again, as in 2016, Pennsylvania (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) were key states, with Pennsylvania, Biden’s home state, the site of both candidate’s last-minute campaigning. While Trump surprised the Clinton camp by taking all three in 2016, this time they went Blue, albeit by a narrow 1-2% of the vote margin.

In mid-October, we identified a divergence between the betting markets, which suggested Trump was ahead, and the polls, which put Biden in front, in Iowa (6 votes), Georgia (16 votes) and Ohio (18 votes). Iowa and Ohio went Red, but Georgia went Blue.

Georgia remained under close scrutiny as its Senate run-off battle held the key to the balance of power in the upper house. With Democrats Jon Osoff and Raphael Warnock edging out their respective opponents, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler (by vote splits of 50.5% to 49.5%, and 50.9% to 49.1%, respectively), the Senate is now split 50-50. However, the Constitution gives the Vice President the liberty and privilege to cast tie-breaking votes if required.

As such, this race sealed the Democrats’ trifecta control over the executive branch and both chambers of Congress for the next two years, which should allow President-elect Biden to push his legislative agenda freely for that time.

Despite his best efforts so far, President Trump has said that he will aid a smooth transition of power.

Election 2024 winners markets

Too soon? It may seem extremely early to be offering markets on the next election even before the next president has taken office, but at Cloudbet we aim to please and our politics offering was incredibly well received last year. While the exact figures aren’t known, it is no secret that the 2020 election was a massive event that attracted an enormous amount of bettor interest around the world.

And here’s an interesting thought, recently bandied around the Cloudbet office: Imagine if you had been able to place a sizeable bitcoin bet, in 2012, on Trump to win in 2016. Combine the presumably insanely lengthy odds that you would have been offered with the moonshot in bitcoin price since then... Nice thought.

Here we highlight only a few of the names available - some more tongue in cheek than others - so be sure to check out the site for the full offering.

Re-election - Joe Biden (4.95): The odds on the now 78-year old President-elect winning a second term are 4.95. At 82, that would make him the oldest president to take office since… Joe Biden in 2021.

And before that, Donald Trump at the age of 70 in 2016.

Re-election, II - Donald Trump (7.58): What may interest bettors - especially given the amount of money that seems to have been wagered on him in this election - is that the odds on Donald Trump are 7.58. Might he fancy a chance to Make America Great Again again?

The only other president to serve two non-consecutive terms was Grover Cleveland, the 22nd (1885-89) and 24th (1893-97) president of the United States. Could Trump be the 45th and 47th?

VP Harris steps up (4.59): Should you fancy the idea of Kamala Harris stepping up after one vice-presidential term, the odds are shorter than for a second Biden term - she currently sits at 4.59.

VP Pence steps up (13.6): As Washington continues to struggle with the outgoing incumbent, there’s actually a chance that the vice president finds himself becoming the next president before the next president does… if that makes sense. However, the odds on him winning the 2024 election are 13.6.

Former First Lady (32.5): While it might take some persuading, Michelle Obama remains much-loved and well respected in certain circles. Her odds are 32.5.

A Trump dynasty? - Ivanka (26.3): It wouldn't be the first time that offspring followed their father into the White House, as George W. (2001-09) followed George H. W. (1989-93). Odds on the former Advisor to the President and Director of the Office of Economic Initiatives and Entrepreneurship are 26.3. Her brother Don Jr. is at 50.2, leading their third sibling, Eric, at 104.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (22.6): The Representative from New York was, at 29 years old, the youngest person to take office in the House back in 2019, and has made a name for herself since. It may be a tad premature to expect an AOC run - but a Harris/AOC ticket in 2024?

Acting the part?: Criticism was levelled at the 45th for his unpresidential behaviour at times - maybe America would prefer to see a suave George Clooney fill the role (100) next time? Or perhaps by 2024 the presidency may require a more imposing figure, one that suggests you’d be better off not messing with him. Can you smell what the 47th is cooking? Odds on Dwayne Johnson are 29.6. For a softer touch, Oprah is available at 98.6.

Yeezy (80.8): It’s Kanye. End of.  

Dave Portnoy (212): Our rank outsider at 212, but as the leading bitcoin sportsbook, we can’t not mention the Barstool king.


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